Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Grazer AK travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur-Arena: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Grazer AK have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Grazer AK have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus Grazer AK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 38% | Grazer AK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.01 xG and Grazer AK 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / defence 0.888 | Grazer AK attack 0.655 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Sturm Graz games / 27 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 66% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 10%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.52 | Draw 4.17 | Grazer AK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | Grazer AK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 66% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG Sturm Graz 2.01 / Grazer AK 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / def 0.888 | Grazer AK attack 0.655 / def 1.493 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Grazer AK xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK part of?
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 66% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 10% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sturm Graz and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
Record (4 meetings): Sturm Graz 4W | Draws 0 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.85x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
66%
1.51
24%
4.18
10%
10.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.69
0.69
Grazer AK xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
10.36
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
1%
77.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.69 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 10D 9L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 1.11 PPG from 37 outings (10W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sturm Graz's home form reads 7W 6D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grazer AK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Grazer AK away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.50 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Grazer AK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Grazer AK in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Sturm Graz won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
0
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
From 4 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Grazer AK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, Grazer AK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sturm Graz) and 56% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Grazer AK in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 39% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 56% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.