Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur-Arena: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 1.10 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (1.80 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Austria Vienna in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Austria Vienna, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Vienna have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.42 xG and Austria Vienna 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.184 / defence 0.928 | Austria Vienna attack 1.035 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.379. Data: 33 Sturm Graz games / 33 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 59% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 17%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Austria Vienna lead the H2H ledger, but Sturm Graz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 59% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Sturm Graz 2.42 / Austria Vienna 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.184 / def 0.928 | Austria Vienna attack 1.035 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Austria Vienna xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 59% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 5W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.18x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.03x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.30
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.74
1.32
Austria Vienna xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
2%
64.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.32 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 21W 12D 10L from 43 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 21L across 43 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 2D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 21W 12D 10L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 6D 21L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.62 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 2-5 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 62%, Austria Vienna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sturm Graz) and 67% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 67% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 67% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.