SCR Altach 1-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SCR Altach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
WSG Wattens (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 1–0 with SCR Altach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus WSG Wattens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | WSG Wattens 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.44 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.944 / defence 0.976 | WSG Wattens attack 0.950 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.192. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 28%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | WSG Wattens 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | WSG Wattens 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG SCR Altach 1.44 / WSG Wattens 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.944 / def 0.976 | WSG Wattens attack 0.950 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 1 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 44% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.95x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.54
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.54
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.10 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 6W 13D 13L from 32 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. SCR Altach haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 20L across 32 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. WSG Wattens haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.81 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 3W 7D 6L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 3W 2D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.91 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Pre-Season
WSG Wattens
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 6W 13D 13L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 7W 5D 20L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.69 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
4
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when SCR Altach 0-0 WSG Wattens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 44%, WSG Wattens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 56% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 44% of games; WSG Wattens in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 44% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 56% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat SCR Altach 1-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.44 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against WSG Wattens attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 44% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 28%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, WSG Wattens 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.97 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.