SCR Altach 2-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.60 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SCR Altach, 1 for Wolfsberger AC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.57 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.890 / defence 1.095 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.975 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.101. Data: 24 SCR Altach games / 24 Wolfsberger AC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.45. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 0.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | Wolfsberger AC 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG SCR Altach 1.57 / Wolfsberger AC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.890 / def 1.095 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.975 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wolfsberger AC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 2 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 3 | Wolfsberger AC 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.00
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.74
1.18
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.18 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 13D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.35 PPG from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.00 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 3W 7D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.32 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 7W 13D 14L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.94 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 47%, Wolfsberger AC 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (SCR Altach) and 47% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 35%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 41% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 41% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of SCR Altach's recent games and 47% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.57 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Wolfsberger AC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.00 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.