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Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Ried 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Ried 1-0 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.68 xG and Ried 1.14 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Ried attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 0%, Ried 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SCR Altach arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. SCR Altach managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ried managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.