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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.38 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 37%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, Red Bull Salzburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights