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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach and Grazer AK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach and Grazer AK finished level at 1-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.86 xG and Grazer AK 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Grazer AK attack 0.89 / defence 1.40, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 59% | Draw 23% | Grazer AK 18%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Grazer AK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.94 PPG, Grazer AK 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights