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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

CASHPOINT Arena plays host to SCR Altach versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Grazer AK away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SCR Altach 0W, Grazer AK 2W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Grazer AK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 52% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 45% | Grazer AK 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.63 xG and Grazer AK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.780 / defence 0.994 | Grazer AK attack 0.921 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 22 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Grazer AK 4.35. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Grazer AK 60% BTTS from recent games.

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