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Shock result as Grazer AK defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat SCR Altach 1-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.56 xG and Grazer AK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Grazer AK attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 46% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 28%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Grazer AK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Grazer AK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.62 PPG, Grazer AK 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights