SCR Altach 0-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC BW Linz's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.60 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SCR Altach 0W, FC BW Linz 1W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | FC BW Linz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 2.02 xG and FC BW Linz 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.881 / defence 0.922 | FC BW Linz attack 0.991 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.150. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 SCR Altach games / 28 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 58% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 17%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | FC BW Linz 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SCR Altach (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | FC BW Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 58% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG SCR Altach 2.02 / FC BW Linz 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.881 / def 0.922 | FC BW Linz attack 0.991 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC BW Linz xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 58% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SCR Altach and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 3 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. FC BW Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.88) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.99x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.05
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.08
1.05
FC BW Linz xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
2%
43.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.05 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 15D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (10W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.11 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 8D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC BW Linz's season.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.11 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
FC BW Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 15L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or FC BW Linz away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.05 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.68 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 47%, FC BW Linz 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 53% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games; FC BW Linz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 53% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 53% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 2.02 xG and FC BW Linz 1.05 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against FC BW Linz attack 0.99 / defence 1.39, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 58% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 17%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, FC BW Linz 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.03 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.