SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Austria Klagenfurt at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 5D 4L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.10 (Austria Klagenfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Austria Klagenfurt have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for SCR Altach.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Klagenfurt have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus Austria Klagenfurt 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | Austria Klagenfurt 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.30 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.721 / defence 0.921 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.777 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.210. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 SCR Altach games / 31 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.00. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG SCR Altach 1.30 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.721 / def 0.921 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.777 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Austria Klagenfurt xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 47% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (6 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 5W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.51
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.16
0.87
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.87 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 8W 15D 18L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 15L across 41 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.95 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 4W 8D 8L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.20 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 12W 14D 15L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
4
Draws
5
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 45%, Austria Klagenfurt 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SCR Altach) and 50% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 35%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 40% of games; Austria Klagenfurt in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 40% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SCR Altach's recent games and 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 11, as SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.30 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.87 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 47% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, Austria Klagenfurt 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.95 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.