Ried vs WSG Wattens – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ried at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ried and WSG Wattens meet at Innviertel Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Innviertel Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ried, 1.10 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Ried 3W, WSG Wattens 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 58% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 51% | WSG Wattens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.54 xG and WSG Wattens 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.056 / defence 0.998 | WSG Wattens attack 1.077 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Ried games / 31 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 38% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 32%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ried 70% | WSG Wattens 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 38% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Ried 1.54 / WSG Wattens 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.056 / def 0.998 | WSG Wattens attack 1.077 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Ried (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Ried vs WSG Wattens is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
Where is Ried vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs WSG Wattens part of?
Ried vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 38% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ried and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
Record (10 meetings): Ried 3W | Draws 3 | WSG Wattens 4W.
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.06x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.08x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ried xG
Total xG
2.94
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ried and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ried and 1.40 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried come into this having played 41 games, going 18W 7D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.24 PPG from 41 outings (13W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Ried against 1.24 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ried's home form reads 13W 3D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or WSG Wattens away?
Ried's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.00 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
3
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 52%, WSG Wattens 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ried) and 52% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ried's recent matches and 43% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ried's recent games and 52% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.