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Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.07 xG and WSG Wattens 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against WSG Wattens attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 30% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 41%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, WSG Wattens 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.27 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights