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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ried cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat WSG Wattens 2-0 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.08 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.66 / defence 1.20 against WSG Wattens attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 8/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 29% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 44%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights