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Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Ried 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Ried 0-1 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.29 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ried fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 38% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 33%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 47%, Wolfsberger AC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.40 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights