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Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ried host Sturm Graz at Innviertel Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ried haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ried's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Innviertel Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.40 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ried register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Ried.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Table Context

The standings have Sturm Graz (1st, 38 pts) 8 places above Ried (9th, 28 pts) — a 10-point gap in Bundesliga.

On home turf, Ried's Bundesliga record reads 4W 3D 4L this term. Away from home, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 3L in Bundesliga this season. Ried: Bundesliga (Relegation Group). Sturm Graz: Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group).

Trading Patterns

Ried in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 50% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 47% | Sturm Graz 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.32 xG and Sturm Graz 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.956 / defence 0.999 | Sturm Graz attack 1.038 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.145. Data: 22 Ried games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ried at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ried 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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