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Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out SCR Altach 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat SCR Altach 3-2 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.07 xG and SCR Altach 0.97 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, SCR Altach 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

SCR Altach's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.29 PPG, SCR Altach 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights