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Dominant Ried run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 0.93 xG and SCR Altach 1.20 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against SCR Altach attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 28% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 42%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, SCR Altach 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.44 PPG, SCR Altach 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights