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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ried and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Ried and Red Bull Salzburg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.49 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 0/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 28% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights