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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, Rapid Vienna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.36 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights