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Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Ried 0-2 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 0.91 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.39 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ried fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 10/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 25% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 48%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Rapid Vienna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.40 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights