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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ried and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried and Lask Linz finished level at 1-1 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.17 xG and Lask Linz 1.31 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Lask Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.44 PPG, Lask Linz 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights