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Ried cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat FC BW Linz 2-0 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.10 xG and FC BW Linz 1.01 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against FC BW Linz attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 37% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 32%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 48%, FC BW Linz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.34 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights