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Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Ried 0-2 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.23 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ried fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Austria Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ried 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 48%, Austria Vienna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ried's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ried 1.33 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights