🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.08 xG and WSG Wattens 0.97 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.41 / defence 1.00 against WSG Wattens attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 63% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 17%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 61%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights