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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.88 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 20%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 51%, WSG Wattens 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights