🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Wolfsberger AC 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.84 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.20 / defence 0.88 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.57 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 33%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 49%, Wolfsberger AC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights