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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.45 xG and SCR Altach 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.34 / defence 0.94 against SCR Altach attack 0.75 / defence 0.83, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 61%, SCR Altach 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

SCR Altach's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights