Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.22) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.80x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.51
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.13
0.74
Rapid Vienna xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.74 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.