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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.26 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Austria Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 58%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights