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Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 xG and Austria Vienna 1.64 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 61%, Austria Vienna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.82 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights