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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 4-1 hammering of WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 4-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 0.91 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.76 against WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights