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Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.42 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 53%, Wolfsberger AC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.35 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights