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Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 0-1 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.79 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.39 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.34 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 45% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 42%, Wolfsberger AC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights