Rapid Vienna 1-0 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 41%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rapid Vienna haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sturm Graz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rapid Vienna, 2 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 41% versus Sturm Graz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 38% | Sturm Graz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.017 / defence 0.975 | Sturm Graz attack 1.016 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.318. Data: 22 Rapid Vienna games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 40% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.48 / Sturm Graz 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.017 / def 0.975 | Sturm Graz attack 1.016 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sturm Graz xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 0 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 41% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): Rapid Vienna 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 2W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.02x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.73
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Sturm Graz xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.30 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 11W 12D 9L from 32 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. Rapid Vienna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 3L across 32 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. Sturm Graz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 4W 7D 5L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 9W 6D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.75 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sturm Graz in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Pre-Season
Sturm Graz
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 11W 12D 9L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 19W 10D 3L in their last 32 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.19 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 50%, Sturm Graz 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rapid Vienna) and 62% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rapid Vienna's games and 69% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out Sturm Graz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 1-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Sturm Graz attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 38%, Sturm Graz 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.