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Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat SCR Altach 5-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.46 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against SCR Altach attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 29%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 39%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights