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Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Ried 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Final, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.52 xG and Ried 0.90 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ried landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Ried attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 51% | Draw 27% | Ried 22%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 41%, Ried 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Ried's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, Ried 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights