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Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.74 xG and Ried 1.30 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Ried attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 37/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 48% | Draw 24% | Ried 29%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 53%, Ried 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.60 PPG, Ried 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights