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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.23 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 33% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 38%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, Red Bull Salzburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights