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Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.67 xG and Lask Linz 0.89 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lask Linz outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Lask Linz attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 56% | Draw 24% | Lask Linz 20%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lask Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 54%, Lask Linz 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Lask Linz's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.49 PPG, Lask Linz 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights