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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lask Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Lask Linz 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.86 xG and Lask Linz 1.11 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 52% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 20%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 45%, Lask Linz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lask Linz's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.37 PPG, Lask Linz 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights