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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Rapid Vienna 1-3 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.50 xG and Austria Vienna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 49% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 25%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 54%, Austria Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.54 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights