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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Austria Vienna 2-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Austria Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Austria Vienna attack 1.14 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 43% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 26%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 41%, Austria Vienna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights