Lask Linz 1-5 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Lask Linz welcome Wolfsberger AC to Raiffeisen Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lask Linz's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lask Linz, 4 for Wolfsberger AC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 44% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 42% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.49 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.753 / defence 1.057 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.858 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.059. Lask Linz's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Lask Linz games / 26 Wolfsberger AC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 49% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 24%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Wolfsberger AC 4.17. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 50% | Wolfsberger AC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 49% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lask Linz 1.49 / Wolfsberger AC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.753 / def 1.057 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.858 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Wolfsberger AC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Lask Linz 1 - 5 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 49% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (6 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 4W.
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.75x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.58
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.45
0.96
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.96 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 10D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 13W 10D 13L from 36 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.53 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.72 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
0
Draws
7
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 39%, Wolfsberger AC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Lask Linz) and 44% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 33%; Wolfsberger AC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 39% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Lask Linz's recent games and 44% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 1-5 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.49 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 0.96 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 49% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 24%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 42%, Wolfsberger AC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.53 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.