Lask Linz 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lask Linz welcome Wolfsberger AC to Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Lask Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 2, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Lask Linz 1–2 Wolfsberger AC — a Wolfsberger AC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 59% and Wolfsberger AC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 43% | Wolfsberger AC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.57 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.108 / defence 0.883 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.933 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.191. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 41 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 41.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 49% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.03 | Draw 3.48 | Wolfsberger AC 4.54. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 49% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lask Linz 1.57 / Wolfsberger AC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.108 / def 0.883 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.933 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wolfsberger AC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Lask Linz 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 49% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.11x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 41 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.48
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.55
0.98
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.98 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 23W 19D 9L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 19W 10D 22L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolfsberger AC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 6D 4L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 8L from their last 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 63%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 19D 9L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.04 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Lask Linz have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won Wolfsberger AC 1-5 Lask Linz.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
0
Draws
6
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 56%, Wolfsberger AC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 64% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lask Linz's games and 56% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lask Linz's matches and 64% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 84% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 0-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.57 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 49% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 43%, Wolfsberger AC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.