Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Lask Linz, 1.70 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 6 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lask Linz and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 65% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.62 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.100 / defence 1.029 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.288 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.379. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Lask Linz games / 33 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 32% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 40%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 32% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Lask Linz 1.62 / TSV Hartberg 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.100 / def 1.029 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.288 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.83
TSV Hartberg xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 32% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 6 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.10x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.29x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.57
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.45
1.83
TSV Hartberg xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.83 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 43 games, going 24W 8D 11L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (15W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 24W 8D 11L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.14 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
6
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 57%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lask Linz) and 48% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 38%; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lask Linz's matches and 48% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.