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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 3-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 36% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 38%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 56%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.54 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights