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Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 2-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.61 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 47% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, TSV Hartberg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.66 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights