Lask Linz 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, TSV Hartberg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lask Linz 2W, TSV Hartberg 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 49% versus TSV Hartberg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 46% | TSV Hartberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.90 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.109 / defence 1.258 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.127 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.178. Data: 33 Lask Linz games / 32 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | TSV Hartberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Lask Linz 1.90 / TSV Hartberg 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.109 / def 1.258 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.127 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.67
TSV Hartberg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (2 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.11x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.13x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.29
22%
4.53
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.57
1.67
TSV Hartberg xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.67 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 11D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (16W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.37 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 11W 3D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.71 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 43%, TSV Hartberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Lask Linz and 71% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lask Linz's matches and 71% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 1-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.90 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.67 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.11 / defence 1.26 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 46%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.51 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.