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Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.48 xG and SCR Altach 1.15 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 54%, SCR Altach 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

SCR Altach's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights